{"id":16191,"date":"2015-01-15T12:45:40","date_gmt":"2015-01-15T17:45:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.glensfalls.com\/glensfallsbusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015---paul-l-dowen.html"},"modified":"2015-01-15T12:45:40","modified_gmt":"2015-01-15T17:45:40","slug":"economic-outlook-2015-paul-l-dowen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.glensfalls.com\/glensfallsbusinessjournal\/2015\/01\/economic-outlook-2015-paul-l-dowen\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Outlook 2015 – Paul L. Dowen"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n\"pauldowen-hsc.jpg\"\n<\/div>\n
Paul L. Dowen, CPA, Whittemore, Dowen and Ricciardelli LLP.\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

BY PAUL L. DOWEN<\/p>\n

From an economic standpoint, 2014, although
\nnot stellar, was definitely a better
\nyear than some of its predecessors. I am
\noptimistic about the year that lies ahead.<\/p>\n

Increased employment and lower energy
\ncosts create an increase in consumer
\nspending, which drives business and will
\nin turn increase business spending.<\/p>\n

There are soft signals from the Fed that
\ninterest rates may increase slightly also
\nsuggesting a renewed level of confidence
\nin our economy. While there are many
\nwild cards in the mix, we are poised for
\ncontinued modest growth in 2015.
\nThe recent economic climate has
\nchanged the way many companies do
\nbusiness. Survival mode forged stronger
\ncompanies with more effective management
\nand controls. Our clients are concentrating
\non their core profit centers
\nand have shed less productive (profitable)
\nactivities. Their focus has shifted
\nto leaner operations with an eye on
\ncontinual improvement. As the economy
\ngrows, business will expand to meet
\ngrowing demand, and they will benefit by
\nincreased efficiencies adopted to survive.<\/p>\n

The labor market will improve for job
\nseekers, lowering the unemployment
\nrate. Employers will not only need to
\ncompete to hire top talent but could
\nstruggle to retain existing employees.<\/p>\n

Competition will help drive wage and
\nbenefit increases. Increased levels of
\nemployment and higher wages will result
\nin higher discretionary income, helping
\nspur the economy.<\/p>\n

Falling crude prices have had many
\nfavorable impacts on our economy. Lower
\nprices at the pump leave more money for
\ndiscretionary purchases which increase
\nconsumer demand. Businesses realize
\nsavings in transportation costs, petroleum
\nbased materials, and overall utility
\nsavings, freeing up capital for investment.
\nIn addition, falling gas prices should help
\nkeep inflation low.<\/p>\n

However, prolonged falling prices for
\ncrude could ultimately have a negative
\nimpact on the stock market, as well as
\nthe economy as a whole . I expect our
\neconomy to benefit from lower pump
\nprices well into 2015, but expect to see
\nsome market correction before year-end
\nas producers reduce supply when it is no
\nlonger profitable.<\/p>\n

The Fed has been subtly indicating by
\nomitting “considerable time” language
\nthat they will increase interest rates
\nin the coming year. This increase will
\nbe contingent on continued economic
\nimprovement and the degree of inflation.
\nFor borrowers this increase will
\nultimately increase interest expense.<\/p>\n

For businesses considering long term
\nborrowing, the potential increase should
\nbe factored into the planning process.
\nIncreased interest rates are also expected
\nto fuel foreign investment in the United
\nStates. While the increase will be gradual,
\nwe should anticipate higher interest rates
\nin the future.<\/p>\n

Local issues that will have a direct
\nimpact on our local economy include expansion
\nof casino gambling, Start-Up NY
\ntax-free business development zones, and
\nthe New York state hydraulic fracturing
\nban. Both the casino and fracking issues
\nhave been contentious, but with the decisions
\ncomes resolution and the ability to
\nmove forward.<\/p>\n

The approval of three multi-million
\ndollar casino projects in New York state
\nwill generate construction jobs in the
\narea and increased demand for materials
\nin the coming year. Ultimately the projects
\nwill create permanent hospitality
\ncareer opportunities as well as supporting
\nbusiness opportunities in the surrounding
\nregions. The casinos will increase tax
\nand licensing revenues which will help
\nrevitalize the struggling communities
\nchosen.<\/p>\n

Agree or disagree, the ban on hydraulic
\nfracturing (“fracking”) in New York state
\ncarries economic consequences for this
\nregion. States with fracking have benefited
\nfrom both jobs and revenue. New
\nYork’s desire to create more environmentally
\nconservative growth is admirable,
\nbut will likely not result in any immediate
\nfavorable impact in 2015.<\/p>\n

SUNY Adirondack was approved as
\ntax-free zone through Start-Up NY. This
\ndesignation was established to attract
\nqualified businesses to upstate New York.
\nWhile SUNY Adirondack is one of many
\napproved zones within the state, the
\nzero tax concept will offer a competitive
\nadvantage over other states in enticing
\nbusinesses to relocate to our region.<\/p>\n

The impact of the recent national
\nelections is still a wild card. At this time
\nlast year, I was hopeful that 2013’s last
\nminute budget deal signaled a beginning
\nof compromise and good governing. Unfortunately
\nthat wasn’t the case in 2014.<\/p>\n

I am again hopeful that our elected
\nofficials will get back to the business of
\ngoverning. The upcoming term will prove
\ninteresting for the nation as the new
\nmajority will need to figure out not only
\nhow to compromise with the minority and
\nthe President, but how to build consensus
\nwith it’s own divided constituency to
\nachieve results.<\/p>\n

I am optimistic for 2015, slightly more
\noptimistic than last year, although I
\nhaven’t yet reached a level which could
\nbe described as excited. All the signs suggest
\nthat 2015 will continue the positive
\ntrends we experienced last year. As the
\neconomy strengthens, the positive effects
\nwill help perpetuate the momentum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Paul L. Dowen, CPA, Whittemore, Dowen and Ricciardelli LLP.BY PAUL L. DOWEN From an economic standpoint, 2014, although not stellar, was definitely a better year than some of its predecessors. I am optimistic about the year that lies ahead….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":88,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[66,118],"class_list":["post-16191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-news","tag-business-news","tag-ny-state"],"yoast_head":"\r\nEconomic Outlook 2015 - Paul L. 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