Category Archives: Business Reports

By Michael Brodt
Quarter 1, 2025

During a radio address on his hundredth day in office, on June 12, 1933, our 32nd President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, coined the term “First 100 Days.” Since then, the first 100 days of a presidential term are closely watched and widely talked about. We typically see a flurry of activity during these first 100 days; these first 100 days have proven to be active indeed.

The early part of President Trump’s second term has been largely dominated by talk of tariffs, resulting in a highly volatile stock market, desperate for answers on how potential trade wars might impact our U.S. economy. While the implementation of tariffs (and, in return, the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods) should not come as a surprise, the magnitude of the tariffs and the inconsistent message from Washington is certainly causing angst.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that tariff increases would likely result in a slowing of the U.S. economy and a delay in the progress being made toward lower inflation this year. However, he did say that the expectation would be that the tariff-related impact on the economy would be transitory and work its way through quickly.

After a series of interest rate cuts during 2024, the Fed left rates unchanged at both its 2025 Committee meetings, indicating that it is too early to tell the full impact of higher tariffs on inflation and economic growth. The Fed’s outlook for 2025 economic growth was adjusted to 1.7% from 2.1% and its outlook for inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%.

The first trading days of 2025 saw the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) advance from 5,868 at the beginning of the year, to an all-time high of 6,144 on February 19. Following this apex, the S&P 500 hit correction territory, declining 10% to 5,521 on March 13. More recently, the index has shown strength, advancing just over 3% from this 2025 low.

by Kenneth J. Entenmann, CFA®
4/10/2025

It is said that the markets hate “uncertainty.” Well, we have much uncertainty. The Trump administration has created great confusion as to the end game of the tariff wars. 

Is the purpose of tariffs to raise “billions and billions” to help reset our “unsustainable” fiscal debt and deficits? If that is the case, the tariffs will need to be permanent. 

On the other hand, the administration is busy telling us that over 70 countries have approached the White House to “negotiate” new trade deals. Hopefully, that will be the case, as the world will have more free and fair trade, which is a good thing. However, it also means the tariffs and the “billions and billions” are temporary. 

Which is it? Are the tariffs a permanent income stream or a tool for negotiation? Adding to the confusion is that the answer you get depends on which administration official is speaking. 

Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick are adamant that the tariffs are permanent. National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett and Sec. of Treasury Scott Bessent are clearly in the negotiation camp (As am I.) And the President has demonstrated an ability to make both cases at the same time. Confused? Me too. And so are the markets!

The markets have responded harshly to the inconsistent roll-out of the Trump tariffs. The S&P 500 has been down 11.54 percent in the last five trading days, 13.65 percent in the previous month, and 15.28 percent year-to-date. The market is speaking loudly. But maintaining a long-term view is helpful. Even after the recent carnage, the S&P 500 is up 5.15 percent annually over the last three years, 14.37 percent annually over the last fiveyears, and 11.09 percent annually over the last ten years. That’s pretty good! Especially when compared to the “safe” three-year, five-year, and ten-year bond aggregate returns of .94 percent, -.61 percent and 1.35 percent! Yes, diversification still works!

By Jeffrey B. Shapiro, Esq.

New York State has enacted the Salary Transparency Law (S.9427/A.10477), now in effect since September 17, 2023. This legislation requires employers with four or more employees to disclose the compensation or range of compensation in all advertisements for job, promotion, or transfer opportunities.

Employers need to be aware of the new salary transparency requirements to avoid fines and other legal consequences. There might be small businesses, especially those without regulatory compliance support, who might not be fully aware of these new requirements.

What Needs to Be Disclosed?

New York State Pay Transparency Law mandates private employers with four or more employees to disclose a salary or pay range in all advertised job, promotion, or transfer opportunities. This applies to positions performed wholly or partly in New York State, and even to remote roles that report to a New York-based supervisor or office. The law covers advertisements across various platforms, such as newspapers, social media, or job-listing websites. The pay range should be a good faith estimate of the employer’s offering, with a defined minimum and maximum, and if it’s a fixed rate, that rate should be specified.

Drafting the Pay Range

The New York State Pay Transparency Law outlines that a pay range, reflecting the minimum and maximum annual salary or hourly rate, must be included in job advertisements. If a fixed rate like $30 an hour is to be offered, it must be listed. Pay ranges can’t be open-ended (e.g., “$20+ an hour”) and should only reflect monetary compensation, not other benefits like insurance or paid leave, though these can be disclosed separately. For commission-based pay, it must be clearly stated in the advertisement. Employers are required to make a good faith effort in determining and presenting the pay range.

By Tucker Lounsbury

Cyberattacks on small- and medium-sized businesses (SMB) continue to rise and will only intensify over the next few years. With the increased prevalence and cost of attacks, the absence of a safety net like cyber insurance is no longer an option SMBs can afford. 

Assessing The Threat

Ransomware is one of the most common forms of hacking and includes the cybercriminal holding files or devices hostage in exchange for payment. Unfortunately, bad actors know that SMBs, in general, are less likely to have the full spectrum of safeguards in place, leaving them particularly vulnerable to this growing threat. 

According to Astra, ransomware attacks have risen by 13 percent in the past five years, with an average cost of $1.85 million per incident. By 2031, it is predicted that a ransomware attack will happen every two seconds.

While training employees and requiring measures like strong passwords, regular password resets and multi-factor authentication are critical lines of defense, these steps are no longer enough.

Establishing a Safety Net  

By Renee Walrath

With the 2024 election drawing near, political tensions have increased and will only grow stronger over the upcoming months. Many Americans are bracing for these divisive political conversations, at home and work. 

Although there are always going to be some employees who are eager to share their opinions, a recent study found that over half of workers try to avoid having any discussion of politics in the workplace. That same survey concluded that 51 percent of workers believed that political discussions in the workplace hurt the work environment. 

While it should go without saying that the workplace is not an ideal place to have these conversations, it is unrealistic to expect discussions regarding political concerns not to crop up over the next several months. To help navigate political discourse in a professional environment, companies should be proactive in their approach. Ensure there are clear guidelines and expectations put in place to limit or eliminate any excessive political disruptions. Consider these practical recommendations to effectively navigate political conversations in the workplace. 

First and foremost, establishing clear policies or boundaries is essential. Formalizing policies set a framework of how conversations should be conducted to ensure no ostracizing of employees. 

Professional environments always require mutual respect among all parties. Employers should maintain vigorous anti-discrimination and anti-harassment policies to cover any protected characteristics such as race, gender, religion, etc., which often arise in political dialogue. 

By Christopher K. Kelly

Small business owners in New York face many decisions each day. Being part of a community bank, it’s not uncommon for us to be involved in conversations on how to best attract, retain, and take care of employees in terms of compensation, health benefits, vacation, and retirement.  This last item, retirement and financial security, is an increasingly common topic of interest. In our discussions with workers in New York, most understand there is a need for them to be saving for retirement. They know that people are living longer (meaning income will be needed for a longer period of time), Social Security benefits will not meet their income needs, and health insurance in retirement will be a significant expense.  These conversations often lead to two questions: (1) Does the employer offer a retirement plan and (2) Does the employee have the capacity to make saving for retirement a priority in their budget?  

Over the past several years, there has been an increased effort at the state and federal levels to help small businesses provide their employees access to a retirement savings plan. Small business owners have a variety of retirement plans to choose from, including: 401(k), 403(b), Profit Sharing, Pension Plans, SIMPLE IRAs, and SEPs.  Each of these programs offers its own set of features, requirements, varying complexity, and administrative costs. Knowing which type of retirement plan to implement is not an easy task, and often leads to no selection at all. The result is that many workers in New York are still not covered by an employer-sponsored retirement plan.

In an effort to give more employees access to a retirement plan, many state governments have developed their own programs. While these retirement programs differ by state, the common features include: mandates for businesses to participate based the number of employees, automatic enrollment for employees to save 3 to 5 percent of their pay into a Roth IRA, the ability for an employee to opt-out of saving, designated investment options, and low administrative fees.  

By David M. Kopyc, CRPC

The largest wealth transfer in the history of mankind will take place over the next three decades.  It is estimated to be in excess of 80 trillion dollars.  How will the Gen X and millennials manage this type of wealth and will they be able to work through the options they will need to take to protect these assets and minimize tax liability.

This transfer of wealth will take decades to play out, so most families will have time to take action to develop a plan to maximize their wealth transfer possibly for generations to come.  It is critical to have discussions on how this wealth can be utilized for all the future events that will take place in your family’s lives (weddings, college education, charitable intent, future income sources, etc.).

Regardless how big your pot of gold may be, you need to develop an estate plan.  A simple Will and beneficiary forms are important, but most of us will probably need to have a Trust or multiple Trusts.  Probate is expensive and if you want your money to follow your bloodline, there are options and strategies to take to accomplish this.

There are too many situations with families that ended badly because there was a lack of communication between the family members. It is critical that heirs have open, honest discussions about what they would like from the estate so conflicts do not arise.  While these conversations may be difficult and uncomfortable, it’s better to have your wishes known so there is absolutely no misunderstanding.