Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2020

By Jeff Mead
In 2014, a group of local business people, community leaders, and civic leaders thought the Glens Falls Civic Center was too important an asset to Warren County and Glens Falls to allow it to close. The arena drew about 150,000 people each year to its hockey games, concerts, basketball games, and graduations.
Events at the arena drew thousands of people downtown weekly that also eat dinner, have a drink, or shop at the local retail stores. The arena was a driving force in bringing people into Warren County and Glens Falls.
Fast forward to 2020, the Adirondack Civic Center Coalition has signed another five-year lease with Glens Falls to operate the Cool Insuring Arena. Over 225,000 people attended events in 2019, highlighted by another Adirondack Thunder playoff appearance and the exploits of the Glens Falls High School Basketball team winning the 2019 Section II basketball tournament and the Federation Basketball Tournament of Champions.

By Brian Stidd and Susan Hedge
We have closed out a decade that started just after the global financial crisis of 2008. Following the 2008 crisis, the U.S. economy started and ended an entire decade without entering a recession. However, the sidestep of a recession was accompanied by slower economic growth compared to previous booms. So, what does this mean for the start of a new decade?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses real GDP to measure the U.S. GDP growth rate. Real GDP takes out the effect of inflation. Even though the growth rate is reported quarterly, the BEA annualizes it to be able to compare growth to the previous year. According to the Bureau of Economic analysis, a healthy economy grows at a rate between 2 and 3 percent annually.
According to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 11, 2019, the GDP will slow to 2.0 percent in 2020 and will be 1.9 percent in 2021.

By Mark Shaw
Technology in 2020 is going to be summed up in one word: security. Everything from the latest news with Iran to the multitude of private businesses, as well as public entities like towns and city governments will be consumed by technology and its security.
Security was brought to light by the target level hacks and has filtered down to every local town. Cyber criminals are focusing more and more on smaller and smaller targets.
Why? Because they are easier to attack, they have less support to deal with it and they are often a gateway to a larger number of targets.
Take your local HVAC heating and cooling provider for example. They could be a small business making under one million dollars a year, but they have access to technology they have installed in many major firms. Every hospital, government agency and business in the region depends on their technology to keep their employees warm in the winter and cool in the summer.

By Doug Ford
The construction industry, both nationally and locally, took on a variety challenges this past year, many of which will likely continue to have an impact in 2020.
Despite these difficulties, the industry did well overall. While there are favorable signs of continued growth in the industry, there are still fears in the marketplace that have caused some to proceed with caution.
The biggest single factor, without question, is the lack of skilled labor. This one issue is dramatically influencing how many homes will be physically built in 2020. The skilled labor shortage, combined with an aging workforce and the influx of inexperienced workers, are contributing to the challenges already existing within the industry.
In a national survey produced by Autodesk and the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) in 2019, 77 percent of construction firms in the Northeast report they are having difficulties filling hourly positions that represent the bulk of the construction workforce.

By Thomas Albrecht
Its hard to talk about exciting and important topics like the boom in construction or consumer confidence, or what the Baby Boomers and Millennials want, when the demand for skilled construction related jobs are at an all-time high.
If you look back at the last five years, I have mentioned the coming of a crises. Well, here we are 2020, and secured construction projects are outpacing the number of employees currently in construction and those entering the trades.
NAHB (National Association Home Builders) Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted in his blog that the open positions rate dipped 4 percent in October, after reaching a cycle high of 5.5 percent in April. Furthermore, Dietz said the overall trend for opening construction jobs has been increasing since the end of the Great Recession, matching NAHB and other survey data showing access to skilled labor remains a top business challenge for home builders.

By David Kopyc
I’ve been fortunate to have been in the financial services business for over 35 years. I saw the Dow break 2000 for the first time and every major event since. Flash crash, internet melt down, financial crisis etc.
I’ve always resorted back to the individuals that I feel are the backbone and the individual financial pillars of our industry: Peter Lynch (Fidelity), Jack Bogle (Vanguard), Charles Schwab (Schwab Investments), and Warren Buffet (Berkshire Hathaway).
If you remember about one year ago, the markets were in high anxiety and most of the wall street experts were predicting doom and gloom. We were heading for a recession and the stock market was positioned for a major pullback. We are having an exceptional year in the markets and the same experts that were wrong about this year are pretty optimistic for 2020.

By Michael Bittel
We live in the most beautiful area of the country right here in Warren, Washington, Saratoga and Essex Counties. From our Adirondack Mountains, to beautiful Lake George to the rolling farms of Washington County, we are blessed to live and work here. The passion of our community is second to none with robust companies, big and small, who are vested in our region.
I am always amazed at the amount of giving in both time and money that our business community offers to our greater community. So how do we keep that going and what does 2020 have to offer our business climate and in turn our community?
First and foremost, I am very bullish for 2020 on the continued success of our region’s business community. Small businesses continue to start up in our area at a record pace. Our larger employers continue to expand. Our health care, our education system, our cultural attractions and the beauty of our area all hit high grades by our neighbors.

By Ed Bartholomew
EDC Warren County is a private, nonprofit organization governed by an independent board of directors. The corporation’s mission is to improve the quality of life of the county’s residents by helping businesses and industry grow and prosper.
EDC holds an annually executed contract for services with Warren County to perform economic development services including but not limited to the following:
• Support existing companies through technical and regulatory assistance and act as a liaison between business and government.
• Market county and regional assets to prospective investors, employers and site selectors.
• Coordinate incentive and assistance programs that include interaction with local and state agencies.