Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2024

By Gina Mintzer, cmp, mha

Living, working, and playing in the Lake George region in 2023 proved to be a remarkable experience. As the world made strides toward returning to pre-pandemic norms, stability saw a resurgence throughout the year. Looking forward to 2024, it’s essential to acknowledge the significant preparations and developments that have transformed Lake George into a winter destination.

Lake George introduced two major winter attractions. The creators of Ice Castles adapted their spectacle to withstand winter conditions, resulting in Winter Realms. Opening at the Festival Commons in Wood Park in November, Winter Realms will enchant visitors until the end of February. Another captivating addition is Winter’s Dream, presented by Moment Factory at Fort William Henry. Launched in December, Winter’s Dream will operate until the end of March. Preliminary results indicate a promising start, attracting over 500 additional visitors daily and providing a welcome boost to local businesses operating during the winter season.

February marks the continuation of the 61st annual Lake George Winter Carnival, a cherished event for both locals and tourists. West and Gore Mountains are geared up for a robust winter season, featuring new equipment and programs to enhance the area’s appeal. With an abundance of winter activities in the region, a strong first quarter is anticipated.

Tourism plays a pivotal role in the regional economy. Ongoing efforts have strengthened collaboration across various sectors of the business community. The vitality of the tourism industry directly impacts the entire community, not just those employed in hospitality. Tourism dollars contribute significantly to offsetting local tax burdens and fostering economic sustainability and growth.

The Northeastern Retail Lumber Association (NRLA) has announced the election of Doug Ford, of Curtis Lumber Company, as the new Chair of the association. This election occurred during NRLA’s annual business meeting, coinciding with the LBM Expo at Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, Conn. Ford assumes the role following the two-year tenure of Nick Kuiken from Kuiken Bros. Inc. as Chair.

As a seasoned member of the NRLA and the Lumber and Building Material Dealers Foundation (LBMDF), Ford brings a wealth of experience and understanding of the industry to his new leadership position. With a passionate commitment to workforce development initiatives, he will help set the goals to support NRLA’s mission to enhance the business success of building material suppliers spanning from Maine to Washington, D.C.

Rita Ferris, President of the NRLA, expressed gratitude to outgoing Chair Kuiken. “Nick, alongside the Executive Committee and Board of Directors, has been a driving force behind NRLA’s extraordinary journey over the past two years. His dedication to the prosperity of the NRLA will be a legacy for future generations. Combined with this year’s record-breaking education initiatives, the expansion of our federal lobbying presence through the American Building Materials Alliance (ABMA), and a steady membership, the NRLA is noticeably stronger.”

By Jim Siplon

A wise mentor once told me, “If you can’t explain what you are doing and why you are doing it to your Grandmother, you don’t really understand your work like you think you do.” I have thought of that advice often as I am asked to help others understand the accelerating pace of change facing our business and collective communities. How would I explain to my now departed grandmother, a wise and kind woman who had lived through the Spanish Flu pandemic, the Great Depression and two World Wars by the time she was 35, what we do in our quest to position our area for long term success and have it make sense?

Perhaps by sharing the same ideas I do with our business and public leaders when I meet with them to discuss what economic development is and why it matters to them…we work together to build sustainable communities, and the economies that drive them. In this context, sustainability is a broader ambition than the somewhat more narrow environmental one that it is often used to describe. The Oxford Dictionary defines sustainability as “the ability to be maintained at a certain rate or level.” In other words, we endeavor to create working communities that have what they need to keep going, to endure and hopefully thrive. 

For a long time, we associated our role in this ongoing challenge as advocates for the investments needed, such as public infrastructure and attractors of employers. The idea was that critical assets such as roads, power, water and sewer systems would attract new or entice existing employers to create jobs that would, in turn, underpin our local economy with wages and our municipalities with tax base. While that is still true, we have learned that it is only part of the work that must be done to chart a path toward long term success.

By Renee Walrath 

In 2024, hiring trends will shift as organizations adapt to a changing global workforce and several key themes emerge, offering employers and job seekers a positive outlook. While 2023 started with massive layoffs and continued with that trend throughout the year to cut costs, the hiring trends for 2024 indicate a renewed sense of optimism. 

Google research shows that 39 percent of hiring leaders said they plan to increase their financial commitment toward hiring in 2024, and 70 percent of surveyed U.S. job seekers were somewhat or very confident about their prospects of finding new jobs.

As economies rebound and industries rebuild, companies prepare for growth, creating a heightened demand for skilled professionals. This positive outlook is demonstrated by increased job opportunities across various sectors, creating a favorable environment for job seekers.

Throughout 2023, we’ve seen many companies requiring workers to go back to the office and anticipate more companies to do the same in 2024, with flexibility for remote work on an as-needed basis. Many technological roles will remain remote. While working remote during and post the pandemic, companies noted that Millennials and especially Gen Z were lacking mentor and coaching since they were not working in an office. For us Baby Boomers, it was important for us to learn from our mentors and peers in the office to advance our career. It’s much easier to ask a question when a colleague is sitting right next to you. Listening to other peers in the office discuss a work problem and solving it is how others learn their industry quicker.  

By Dorothy Rogers-Bullis

The keyword in workspace design for 2024 is going to be “flexibility.” Employees and employers alike are looking for solutions that give them an array of design, construction, and furniture options to choose from. A few examples:

Operable walls for multi-use spaces

In today’s work environment, putting 22 chairs around a conference table and only using the room for that one purpose is a waste of space and ultimately money. Instead of dedicating office square footage to a single function — like a large conference room — a more cost-effective option is to find multiple ways to use that same space, and operable walls are one simple solution. These walls are easy to move and can be reconfigured to utilize a space in many ways. Turn an area into a multifunctional space for work, meetings, dining, parties, or even a multimedia room.

Recreate your downtown office at home

Few good things came out of the pandemic, but many employees would argue that there is one: the flexibility to work from home. More and more people are working remotely or in a hybrid environment where they are in the office for part of the week and working from home the remainder. Given that an increasing number of work hours are being spent in home offices, people are putting a greater emphasis on functionality. In some cases, hybrid workers are even recreating their “downtown” office at home, using the same furniture and design esthetic so that on a video call, customers wouldn’t know if they are at home or in the main office.

Coworking for the win

By Mark Shaw

I guess the recession is cancelled. Who knows, right? The world seems a little upside down, but as everyone knows life continues to go on. What we are seeing in the technology space is very interesting as we have, for most intents and purposes, been immune to the economic tides of layoffs and downsizing. This did not hold true in 2023, and so far, 2024 is starting off with a bang. Over 24 tech firms have already had layoffs in 11 days into this year. The big companies have over-hired during the good times and are trimming now. Technology is often the canary in the coal mine. What happens there flows down to the more stable and long-term organizations in healthcare and manufacturing. 

What does this mean to you and your business? It means that the pendulum is swinging again. The rise of good economic times buoyed by the funds from PPP, EIDL, and for some, the ERC (All government programs through COVID-19) are starting to come to an end. The funds have been used and now we are back to equilibrium. As you look over your staff and study your business trends, you might also find yourself needing to reduce staffing to keep moving forward. 

One area everyone worried about making any cuts is typically in the technology area. These people have special skills that are often, in our area, hard to find. You trust your IT person to be making good choices, to be protecting you from threats, and most importantly to just make “IT” work.

But what do you do when the realization that your beloved IT person is moving on to another role, perhaps in another state or country? What if that resource is unable to grow with the big plans you have made for success in 2024. What if they need some help because the day-to-day is burying them to the point their project timelines are slipping?

By Neal Sandin

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has evoked both fear and excitement in the past year over its impact on the marketplace, economy, and our everyday lives. As a market researcher, my job is to discover ways for businesses, brands, and employees to add value to their interactions with consumers. However, in the face of a tool like AI that promises to expand in scope, reach, and capability in 2024 and the years to come, this can seem to be an insurmountable challenge. 

AI has moved into the popular culture and become democratic, thanks in large part to two key strengths. First, its uses and output are novel and exciting. Users now have more impact and control over this tool, with surprising, useful, and often eye-opening results. It can generate video, images, research papers and summaries, seemingly in the blink of an eye. Secondly, but perhaps even more importantly, it is convenient, as programs like ChatGPT have demonstrated. It is easily accessible and user friendly. Anyone can make something entirely novel in just a few minutes while walking down the street with a coffee in one hand and a smartphone in the other.

With these advances, there is also controversy. In 2023, the use of AI was one of the main points of contention in the 2023 writers’ and actors’ strikes. In addition, Marvel faced backlash for using AI during the credits of Secret Invasion. Book publishers have also been criticized for using AI for book covers, as was the case with Fractal Noise by Christoper Paolini. Much of this is depicted as not supporting creatives, and that is certainly a significant factor. However, there is more at play.

It is perhaps not coincidental that the rise in AI seems to correspond with the rise of the “Loneliness Epidemic.” More and more Americans across all ages and demographics are experiencing a sense of isolation, often with devastating effects. AI, a machine that responds to the user, may offer a sense of connection that so many need, fueling its popularity and uptake.

By Sara Mannix

To best predict the leading stories of 2024, we must first look at and understand what happened in 2023.

Mannix Marketing has relationships with many other digital marketing agencies. In 2023, for the first time in a decade, we saw agencies that have been in business for years simply close their doors. Web development agencies were hit especially hard. Although a number of factors contributed to this, chief among them were that the easy money policies from 2020-2022 went away. Businesses these agencies served started to demand marketing that returned results. Under the increased spotlight some agencies struggled with showing returns.

We see the need for marketing agencies to provide demonstrated proof of their value as a trend that continues into 2024. For a web design and development company, this means they need to know that their clients will no longer be satisfied with just a pretty website. Websites will have to play a vital part in generating new leads and achieving company goals.

And we have seen this firsthand. At the same time some web development agencies have been closing their doors, the demand for search engine optimization (SEO) and paid search services has increased. Why? Because SEO and paid search marketing allow a business to be found by the customer who is searching for the exact product or service they offer. As businesses tighten up their marketing budgets, they will be more focused on results-oriented marketing that is both predictable and reliable. SEO and paid search are easy to justify in a marketing budget as both are trackable to the return on ad spend.

By Doug Ford

It’s that time of year again when we look forward and do our best to make an educated forecast for the year ahead. However, before we can do that, we do need to look backwards to set the stage for the year that lies ahead. As with many other businesses, the construction industry did not break any records nor allow for a lot of optimism, but that was expected.  Unlike many other industries the construction industry benefited from people working and staying at home. A lot of unplanned money was invested to remodel, upgrade, and put in home offices to allow for an enjoyable and productive workspace at home while they waited out the COVID pandemic. 

2023 was a “wait and see’ year. 2024 is lining up to be a “back to normal” affair for the housing industry. So, what does the year ahead have in store for the construction industry and those that support the trades like Curtis Lumber. I will do my best to break it down but I’m a lot more optimistic going into 2024 than the year we just completed. However, it’s not all bright and rosy. This year will have many carry-over challenges from last year, but the recent trend indicates a more favorable outlook.

Mortgage rate volatility and uncertainty around the Fed policy along with inflation have all contributed to interest rates that were not affordable or desirable to many that were in the market for a new home. With these three forces now moving in the right direction and likely to improve they could provide additional relief to those sitting on the sidelines. Locally the medium- to lower-end home categories were impacted more than the higher end and multifamily segments, as would be expected. The forecast for housing is optimistic but hinges on continued moderation of inflation and that the Federal Reserve will continue easing its stance on interest rates.