Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2026

By Jim Siplon, President, Warren County EDC

When I first came to this area more than a decade ago, I was struck by the sense that this was a place that punched way above its weight. It had assets that communities many times its size were lacking like a 400 bed hospital, a professional hockey team and arena, a SUNY college campus, a world-class art collection…I could go on as you know with many more attributes. I tell people who haven’t been here that we are the gateway to the Adirondack Park and the bridge to the Capital Region all at the same time.

The federal government developed the concept of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) nearly 75 years ago and refined it to the current criteria in the 1980’s. My predecessor Ed Bartholomew and others worked to get this area adopted officially as an MSA as an aggregation of Warren and Washington Counties and ours is one of the smallest in the country…smaller than all but 17%. Put another way, more than 4 out of 5 metropolitan areas in the U.S. are bigger.

A recent report from Area Development Magazine and Chmura Economics and Analytics examined economic fundamentals in both every MSA and economic market in the country ranging from the NY-NJ-White Plains MSA (population 11,588,916) to Pecos, Tx (population 10,618). While the study identified many high preforming areas in the South and Western U.S., it also had a surprising and robust set of measures for our modest Glens Falls MSA despite our small size.

To summarize the many pages of data and rankings, our Glens Falls MSA is in the top 18% (175 of 949) of all U.S. markets. In the primary category (Economic Strength) our area was in the top 10% nationally (92 of 949), top 6% (5 of 84) of Mid-Atlantic markets and top 4% (3 of 58) of New York and Northern New England markets. The news is not uniformly good though-as one would expect. The major area we lag behind in is our workforce. We know our workforce has been flat or declining for some time and continues to age with a median age approaching 50. We rank in the bottom half at 50% (488 of 949) in this critical component. We simply don’t have enough workers to fully satisfy our existing economy, essentially throttling our otherwise remarkable output and productivity.

By David Andrade, President, Stored Technology Solutions, Inc.

For years, the relationship between a business and its IT provider was purely transactional. You called them when outages occurred or the Wi-Fi dropped, and you paid them to make the problem go away. Today, that break-fix model isn’t just outdated, it’s holding back your ability to scale. In 2026, there should be a shift in how your company utilizes technology. Think of it as moving the technology from the basement to the boardroom. 

Tech is no longer a background function. It’s the backbone of daily operations and a competitive advantage. The organizations that thrive this year won’t just be those with the newest gadgets, but those that redefine their relationship with how technology makes their business better.

The most significant shift we have seen in recent years is replacing the “IT vendor” with the mindset of a strategic partner. Today’s business leaders expect their technology teams to understand their business model, their business goals, and the unique pressures of operating in a seasonal, tourism driven economy. This partnership extends into the realm of cybersecurity, tying into the overall resilience of the company. Small to mid-sized businesses remain primary targets because attackers know there’s a lack of internal resources and budget allocated. 

Every industry has seen the change that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has made. The reality is, AI isn’t a future concept. It’s already embedded in the tools we use every day including Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, and social media platforms. Those who embrace AI-powered systems to automate routine tasks will scale, while those who hesitate will find themselves bogged down by manual workflows. By allowing AI to handle the “noise” and provide deeper system insights, your team is freed up for the higher-value work that actually drives revenue growth. Utilizing AI is no longer optional, it’s the modern approach to business decision making and automations. Businesses that hesitate will risk falling behind.

By State Senator Dan Stec, R–Queensbury, 45th District

As state lawmakers head into the 2026 Legislative Session, we must chart a better direction. Poor state planning, combined with the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) energy plan that’s driving up costs while failing to stabilize our grid for the future, have caused New York’s economy to stagnate and added to the pressures small businesses have faced in the post-COVID economy.

Between energy rates, consistently high taxes and fees and bureaucratic red tape and inflation-induced supply cost increases, action must be taken to provide financial relief. Small businesses often operate on tight financial margins. A state-mandated transition to green energy and the continued increase in electric and gas costs eat away at these margins, reducing a business’ ability to hire, promote or retain its workforce.

Given this reality, it only makes sense for New York State to scale back and at the very least delay the green energy initiatives laid out it in the CLCPA. Late last year, the governor agreed to delay the all-electric building mandate. That should only be a start. According to a report last month by New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), our energy grid is at an “inflection point.” An aging generation fleet and flagging green energy development is leading to a long-term energy shortfall. Investing in an all-of-the-above energy portfolio that includes nuclear and hydro-carbon, in addition to the initiatives proposed via the CLCPA would stabilize our grid, create jobs and ultimately lower costs for consumers.

There must be a decrease in state spending. As of today, New York State is facing a $4.2 billion budget deficit. Our most recent state budget was more than $250 billion, a sum more than the budgets of Florida and Texas combined. This type of reckless spending is unsustainable, and our taxpayers are the ones who bear the brunt of it. Each year, New York is ranked as having the worst climate for economic development and this state spending – funded through a dizzying amount of taxes and fees – is a major reason. Instead of funneling money into top-down initiatives, reducing state spending and putting money back in the hands of local entrepreneurs is a better direction. After all, these are the men and women who actually create jobs and opportunities in our communities.

By Assemblyman Matt Simpson, R–Lake George, 114th District

Representing much of the North Country, I’ve witnessed firsthand the determination of our residents and businesses to thrive amid ongoing challenges. While our state’s economy shows signs of stagnation, rooted largely in Albany’s persistent tax-and-spend approach and overregulation, there are pathways forward through reforms that prioritize affordability and fiscal responsibility. 

New York’s job market has revealed underlying vulnerabilities. Without health care sector job growth, the state would have lost over 50,000 jobs in 2025. This weakness spanned multiple industries. Such broad-based slowdowns underscore the ripple effects of state policies that have made it harder for businesses to hire and expand. In rural districts like the 114th, where small enterprises represent much of the local economy, these trends hit particularly close to home.

Housing remains a critical concern, with prices in New York having outpaced the national average. While supply constraints play a role, true affordability extends beyond just building more units and demands an economy that generates the jobs and incomes to support them. In areas like Glens Falls/Queensbury and into the Adirondacks, we need infrastructure upgrades and a less adversarial business climate to attract development. 

Child care is another financial hurdle families are forced to grapple with. New York currently ranks as one of the least affordable states for child care, with the average annual cost for center-based care exceeding $20,000. The Child Care Assistance Program was meant to cover almost the entire cost of private child care for nearly 100,000 low- and middle-income families. Unfortunately, the funding for these subsidies did not match demand, and many providers were forced to close when funds dried up. This puts an immense burden on families when teachers are displaced in the middle of the year. I am hesitant to introduce new programs until we fix the good ones first.

By David M. Kopyc, CRPC, President of Retirement Planning Group LLC

As forecasts for 2026 take shape, the consensus view is cautiously optimistic. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, supporting continued gains in both stock and bond markets, even as investors adjust to higher volatility and a gradual shift away from the AI-driven tech dominance of recent years.

Most economists anticipate a “soft landing” scenario in which the economy avoids recession, inflation continues to moderate—though remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target—and interest rates trend lower as the Fed continues cutting in response to a softening labor market.

For equity investors, Wall Street strategists are largely aligned in their outlook for another solid year. Major indexes such as the S&P 500 are projected to post double-digit gains, with year-end targets ranging roughly between 7,400 and 8,100. Strong corporate earnings growth, ongoing capital spending tied to artificial intelligence, and a generally market-friendly policy environment are expected to underpin the bull market’s momentum.

Artificial intelligence remains a central driver of growth, with expectations that S&P 500 earnings could rise 14 to 15 percent in 2026. At the same time, analysts expect market leadership to broaden. While mega-cap technology stocks have carried much of the rally to date, value stocks, small- and mid-cap companies, and international developed markets are increasingly viewed as more reasonably priced opportunities.

Underlying these projections is a steady economic backdrop. U.S. gross domestic product growth is forecast in the 2.0 to 2.4 percent range, supported by strong consumer spending and continued business investment.

By Neal Sandin, President, 643 Research

Economic uncertainty reigns, with concerns about tariffs, rising unemployment and inflation, and the possible “AI Bubble” spilling out from social media feeds and news outlets. With higher costs for groceries, utilities, as well as at the gas pump and seemingly everywhere else, people are becoming more discerning about where to spend their hard-earned money. The challenge for brands and market researchers that work for them is not to focus too much on one single factor: price.

Many companies when faced with economic hurdles immediately reduce prices. This is understandable. After all, a typical question that the market researcher asks is if there is anything preventing someone from buying something. Not surprisingly, the first answer is always cost. If things were only a little less expensive, they would buy. Yet ironically, reduction of prices can actually cause people to not buy from a brand. 

For example, if Rolls-Royce suddenly started selling their vehicles at a Honda Civic price point, many people would wonder about the brand and if the quality was truly there. The true appeal of Rolls-Royce is that it is exclusive. These vehicles belong to a rarefied group, one that is full of brand-loyal customers. The more exclusive, the more exciting the brand, the more it captures the imagination on both an emotional and social level. All of this creates and reinforces customer loyalty. 

Some may conclude from this that a higher price is required to create exclusivity. While it is true that a Rolls-Royce at $30,000 is not nearly as remarkable as a Rolls-Royce at $300,000, it is the stories we tell about the brand that truly makes them something special. Rolls-Royce played a key role in royal weddings, including between Princess Diana and Prince Charles. Yet, that Honda Civic that can last 200,000 miles also tells a story, one that Rolls-Royce never could, that of road trips and memories with loved ones. These stories give people a reason to buy from that brand. They make the customer want to spend their money with a specific company and not anyone else. Stories create loyalty. 

By Sara Mannix, Founder & CEO of Mannix Marketing

As we look forward to 2026, the economic narrative is split. On one hand, many growth-minded businesses in the Saratoga and Glens Falls regions are entering the first quarter with record-breaking volume. On the other hand, a “wait-and-see” attitude has taken hold at the enterprise level, with major corporations slowing spending as they anticipate a potential market correction or the bursting of the “AI bubble.”

For local business owners, this contradiction represents a rare window of opportunity. While large-scale competitors hesitate, local businesses can use their agility to claim market share that’s currently being left on the table.

The data behind the “Downturn Dividend” tells a clear story. It is a common reflex to cut marketing budgets at the first sign of uncertainty. However, history proves this is often a brand’s most expensive mistake. Research into the 1981–82 recession found that businesses that maintained or increased their advertising saw sales growth 256% higher by the time the economy recovered than those that cut their budgets.

We saw a modern version of this “Downturn Dividend” right here in our own backyard during COVID-19 in 2020. While much of the country was closing its doors and going quiet, leaders in Lake George pushed forward to aggressively market the region as a safe outdoor destination. By being the first movers to lean into the uncertainty rather than retreat from it, Lake George outpaced all of its competitive markets that summer and the following summer.

When competitors go quiet, your share of voice becomes exponentially louder and cheaper to acquire. In 2026, marketing is not an expense to trim; it is the strategy that ensures you gain ground while others simply hope to survive.