By Stephen Kyne, CFP
During times of economic uncertainly and market volatility, we are often reminded that fear is generally a greater motivating factor than greed. It is during these times that prognosticators of doom gain traction, and individual investors make unwise choices out of fear of losing it all.
While nobody can be certain of what the future holds, we can look to the past for clues and, in doing so, temper our reaction.
Downturns, like the one we are experiencing, generally signal a change in market leadership supported by structural changes in our lives.
At the beginning of the pandemic, we saw a decline in stock indices of about 30 percent as the economy shut down, and investors had to survey the landscape for opportunities. It quickly became apparent that the pandemic was going to last longer than most expected, and that meant the closure of brick-and-mortar shops, restaurants, and offices. The only way the situation would be tenable would be to shift huge parts of our lives online.
For months, you could buy a bicycle from Amazon, but not from Joe’s Bike Shop. The huge and almost instantaneous structural shift favored large national retailers with a strong online presence, and sufficient ordering and distribution channels.
It favored companies that allowed us to remain productive in our occupations from anywhere. It favored restaurants that already had online ordering, and forced others to catch up or perish. An entire generation that largely feared technology was forced to adopt it in order to check in with their doctors. We were fed endless options for streaming entertainment.
Last year, as the pandemic began to wane, we saw some semblance of normalcy. People were going out to dinner again, neighborhood stores were reopening, workers were returning to the office, Pelotons became coat racks, and we walked away from our televisions to picnic and see friends. Structurally, our lives and the economy were correcting, and we’re seeing that reflected today.
